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Scenarios, not predictions.
Recessions are hard to predict and are usually declared only after they have started. Rather than guessing the date, this guide explains how US recessions are defined, which indicators economists watch, four broad scenarios for a slowdown, and how investors prepare without betting on any one outcome.
Every year brings a wave of stock market targets, rate projections and economic forecasts. This guide explains where they come from, including Wall Street strategists, the Fed's dot plot and market-implied odds, why they are often wrong, and how to turn them into scenarios instead of predictions.
A 10% fall is called a correction and a 20% fall a bear market, but the labels say little about what happens next. This guide explains the definitions, how US market declines have differed in cause, depth and length, the safeguards that kick in on volatile days, and how investors plan for drawdowns.
